Saturday, January 21, 2006

 

Election Prediction V - The Motherload

Canada

Liberals - 86
Conservatives - 130
Bloc - 61
NDP - 31

Percentage of the Vote:

Liberals - 31%
Conservatives - 36%
Bloc - 11% (46% in QC)
NDP - 16%
Green - 4%
Other - 2%

Voter Turnout - 68%

British Columbia (19 Conservatives, 9 NDP and 8 Liberal)

• Abbotsford - Liberal
· British Columbia Southern Interior - NDP
• Burnaby-Douglas - NDP
• Burnaby-New Westminster - NDP
• Cariboo-Prince George - Conservative
• Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon - Conservative
• Delta-Richmond East - Conservative
• Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca - Liberal
• Fleetwood-Port Kells - Conservative
• Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo - Conservative
• Kelowna–Lake Country - Conservative
• Kootenay-Columbia - Conservative
• Langley - Conservative
• Nanaimo-Alberni - Conservative
• Nanaimo-Cowichan - NDP
• Newton-North Delta – Liberal
• New Westminster-Coquitlam - Conservative
• North Vancouver - Liberal
• Okanagan-Coquihalla - Conservative
• Okanagan–Shuswap - Conservative
• Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge–Mission - Conservative
• Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam -Conservative
• Prince George-Peace River - Conservative
• Richmond - Liberal
• Saanich-Gulf Islands - Conservative
• Skeena-Bulkley Valley - NDP
• South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale - Conservative
• Surrey North - NDP
• Vancouver Centre - Liberal
• Vancouver East - NDP
• Vancouver Island North - NDP
• Vancouver Kingsway - Liberal
• Vancouver Quadra - Liberal
• Vancouver South - Liberal
• Victoria - NDP
• West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country - Conservative

The North (2 Liberal and 1 NDP)


· Yukon - Liberal
· Western Artic - NDP
. Nunavut - Liberal


Alberta (28 Conservative)

· Calgary Centre - Conservative
· Calgary Centre-North - Conservative
· Calgary East - Conservative
· Calgary Northeast - Conservative
· Calgary - Nose Hill - Conservative
· Calgary Southeast - Conservative
· Calgary Southwest - Conservative
· Calgary West - Conservative
· Crowfoot - Conservative
· Edmonton Centre - Conservative
· Edmonton East - Conservative
· Edmonton - Leduc - Conservative
· Edmonton - Mill Woods - Beaumont - Conservative
· Edmonton - St. Albert - Conservative
· Edmonton - Sherwood Park - Conservative
· Edmonton - Spruce Grove - Conservative
· Edmonton - Strathcona - Conservative
· Fort McMurray - Athabasca - Conservative
· Lethbridge - Conservative
· Macleod - Conservative
· Medicine Hat - Conservative
· Peace River - Conservative
· Red Deer - Conservative
· Vegreville - Wainwright - Conservative
· Westlock - St. Paul - Conservative
· Wetaskiwin - Conservative
· Wild Rose - Conservative
· Yellowhead - Conservative

Saskatchewan (13 Conservative and 1 Liberal)

· Battlefords-Lloydminster - Conservative
· Blackstrap - Conservative
· Cypress Hills-Grasslands - Conservative
· Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River - Conservative
· Palliser - Conservative
· Prince Albert - Conservative
· Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre - Conservative
· Regina-Qu'Appelle - Conservative
· Saskatoon-Humboldt - Conservative
· Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar - Conservative
· Saskatoon-Wanuskewin - Conservative
· Souris-Moose Mountain - Conservative
· Wascana – Liberal
· Yorkton-Melville - Conservative

Manitoba (7 Conservative, 4 Liberal and 3 NDP)

· Brandon-Souris - Conservative
· Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia - Conservative
· Churchill - Liberal
· Dauphin–Swan River–Marquette - Conservative
· Elmwood - Transcona - NDP
· Kildonan-St. Paul - Conservative
· Portage-Lisgar - Conservative
· Provencher - Conservative
· Saint Boniface - Liberal
· Selkirk-Interlake - Conservative
· Winnipeg Centre - NDP
· Winnipeg North - NDP
· Winnipeg South - Liberal
· Winnipeg South Centre - Liberal

Ontario (49 Conservative, 44 Liberal and 15 NDP)

· Ajax-Pickering - Conservative
· Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing - NDP
· Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale - Conservative
· Barrie - Conservative
· Beaches-East York - Liberal
· Bramalea-Gore-Malton - Liberal
· Brampton-Springdale - Liberal
· Brampton West - Conservative
· Brant - Conservative
· Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound - Conservative
· Burlington - Conservative
· Cambridge - Conservative
· Carleton–Mississippi Mills - Conservative
· Chatham-Kent Essex - Conservative
· Davenport - Liberal
· Don Valley East - Liberal
· Don Valley West - Liberal
· Dufferin-Caledon - Conservative
· Durham - Conservative
· Eglinton-Lawrence - Liberal
· Elgin-Middlesex-London – Conservative
· Essex - Conservative
· Etobicoke Centre - Liberal
· Etobicoke-Lakeshore - Liberal
· Etobicoke North - Liberal
· Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - Conservative
· Guelph - Liberal
· Haldimand-Norfolk - Conservative
· Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - Conservative
· Halton - Conservative
· Hamilton Centre - NDP
· Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - NDP
· Hamilton Mountain - NDP
· Huron-Bruce - NDP
· Kenora - NDP
· Kingston and the Islands - Liberal
· Kitchener-Centre - Liberal
· Kitchener–Conestoga – Conservative
· Kitchener-Waterloo – Liberal
· Lambton–Kent–Middlesex - Conservative
· Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington - Conservative
· Leeds-Grenville - Conservative
· London-Fanshawe - NDP
· London North Centre - Liberal
· London West - Conservative
· Markham-Unionville - Liberal
· Mississauga-Brampton South - Liberal
· Mississauga East-Cooksville - Liberal
· Mississauga-Erindale - Conservative
· Mississauga South - Conservative
· Mississauga-Streetsville - Conservative
· Nepean-Carleton - Conservative
· Newmarket-Aurora - Conservative
· Niagara Falls - Conservative
· Niagara West-Glanbrook - Conservative
· Nickel Belt - NDP
· Nipissing-Timiskaming - Conservative
· Northumberland-Quinte West - Conservative
· Oak Ridges-Markham - Liberal
· Oakville - Conservative
· Oshawa - Conservative
· Ottawa Centre - NDP
· Ottawa-Orléans - Liberal
· Ottawa South - Liberal
· Ottawa-Vanier - Liberal
· Ottawa West-Nepean - Conservative
· Oxford - Conservative
· Parkdale-High Park - Liberal
· Parry Sound-Muskoka - Conservative
· Perth-Wellington - Conservative
· Peterborough - Conservative
· Pickering-Scarborough East - Liberal
· Prince Edward-Hastings - Conservative
· Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Conservative
· Richmond Hill - Liberal
· St. Catharines - Conservatives
· St. Paul's - Liberal
· Sarnia-Lambton - Liberal
· Sault Ste. Marie - NDP
· Scarborough-Agincourt - Liberal
· Scarborough Centre - Liberal
· Scarborough-Guildwood - Liberal
· Scarborough-Rouge River - Liberal
· Scarborough Southwest - Liberal
· Simcoe-Grey - Conservative
· Simcoe North - Conservative
· Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - Conservative
· Sudbury - Liberal
· Thornhill – Liberal
· Thunder Bay-Rainy River - Liberal
· Thunder Bay-Superior North - Liberal
· Timmins-James Bay - NDP
· Toronto Centre - Liberal
· Toronto-Danforth - NDP
· Trinity-Spadina - NDP
· Vaughan - Liberal
· Welland - Liberal
· Wellington-Halton Hills - Conservative
· Whitby-Oshawa - Conservative
· Willowdale - Liberal
· Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP
· Windsor West - NDP
· York Centre - Liberal
· York-Simcoe - Conservative
· York South-Weston - Liberal
· York West - Liberal

Quebec (61 Bloc, 11 Liberal and 3 Conservative)

· Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou - Bloc
· Abitibi-Témiscamingue - Bloc
· Ahuntsic - Bloc
· Alfred-Pellan - Bloc
· Argenteuil–Papineau–Mirabel - Bloc
· Bas-Richelieu–Nicolet–Bécancour - Bloc
· Beauce - Conservative
· Beauharnois-Salaberry - Bloc
· Beauport–Limoilou - Bloc
· Berthier-Maskinongé - Bloc
· Bourassa - Liberal
· Brome-Missisquoi - Bloc
· Brossard-La Prairie – Liberal
· Chambly-Borduas - Bloc
· Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles - Bloc
· Châteauguay-St-Constant - Bloc
· Chicoutimi-Le Fjord - Bloc
· Compton-Stanstead - Bloc
· Drummond - Bloc
· Gaspésie-–Îles-de-la-Madeleine - Bloc
· Gatineau - Liberal
· Haute-Gaspésie–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia - Bloc
· Hochelaga - Bloc
· Honoré-Mercier - Bloc
· Hull-Aylmer - Liberal
· Jeanne Le Ber - Bloc
· Joliette - Bloc
· Jonquière-Alma - Bloc
· Lac-St-Louis - Bloc
· La Pointe-de-l'Île - Bloc
· LaSalle-Émard - Liberal
· Laurentides-Labelle - Bloc
· Laurier–Sainte-Marie - Bloc
· Laval – Bloc
· Laval-Les Îles - Bloc
· Lévis-Bellechasse - Bloc
· Longueuil–Pierre-Boucher - Bloc
· Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière - Bloc
· Louis-Hébert - Bloc
· Louis St. Laurent - Conservative
· Manicouagan - Bloc
· Marc-Aurèle-Fortin - Bloc
· Mégantic-L'Érable - Bloc
· Montcalm - Bloc
· Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup - Bloc
· Montmorency–Charlevoix–Haute-Côte-Nord - Bloc
· Mount Royal - Liberal
· Notre-Dame-De-Grâce-Lachine - Liberal
· Outremont - Liberal
· Papineau – Bloc
· Pierrefonds-Dollard - Liberal
· Pontiac - Conservative
· Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier - Bloc
· Québec - Bloc
· Repentigny - Bloc
· Richmond-Arthabaska - Bloc
· Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques - Bloc
· Rivière-des-Mille-Iles - Bloc
· Rivière-du-Nord - Bloc
· Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean - Bloc
· Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie - Bloc
· Saint-Bruno-St-Hubert - Bloc
· Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot - Bloc
· Saint-Jean – Bloc
· Saint-Lambert - Bloc
· Saint-Laurent-Cartierville - Liberal
· Saint-Léonard-St-Michel - Liberal
· Saint-Maurice-Champlain – Bloc
· Shefford - Bloc
· Sherbrooke - Bloc
· Terrebonne-Blainville - Bloc
· Trois-Rivières - Bloc
· Vaudreuil-Soulanges - Bloc
· Verchères-Les-Patriotes - Bloc
· Westmount-Ville-Marie - Liberal

New Brunswick (4 Conservative, 4 Liberal and 1 NDP)

· Acadie-Bathurst - NDP
· Beauséjour - Liberal
· Fredericton - Conservative
· Fundy Royal – Conservative
· Madawaska-Restigouche - Liberal
· Miramichi - Liberal
· Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe - Liberal
· New Brunswick Southwest - Conservative
· Saint John - Conservative
· Tobique-Mactaquac - Conservative

Nova Scotia (5 Liberal, 4 Conservative and 2 NDP)

· Cape Breton-Casno - Liberal
· Central Nova - Conservative
· Cumberland–Colchester–Musquodoboit Valley - Conservative
· Dartmouth-Cole Harbour – Liberal
· Halifax - NDP
· Halifax West - Liberal
· Kings-Hants - Liberal
· Sackville-Eastern Shore - NDP
· South Shore-St. Margaret's - Conservative
· Sydney-Victoria - Liberal
· West Nova - Conservative

Prince Edward Island (4 Liberal)

· Cardigan - Liberal
· Charlottetown - Liberal
· Egmont - Liberal
· Malpeque - Liberal

Newfoundland and Labrador (4 Liberal and 3 Conservative)

· Avalon - Conservative
· Bonavista–Gander–Grand Falls–Windsor – Liberal
· Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte - Liberal
· Labrador - Liberal
· Random-Burin-St.George's - Liberal
· St. John's East - Conservative
· St. John's South–Mount Pearl - Conservative

Bonus Questions:

All leaders will win their seats, however, Martin wins with the smallest majority

Crowfoot in Alberta is the riding with the biggest vote spread. Only the Conservative candidate gets his deposit back.

Cabinet Minsiters going down: Stronach, McCellan, Scott, Pettigrew, Valeri, Frulla and Mitchell.

Paul Martin resigns just after the 2nd Gomery Report - maybe say 30 days or so!


Comments:
It'll be interesting to see what shakes out. Reading over the list, I can see why Ontario gets to run the country. Maybe we Westerners should throw some tea into the Rideau or something?
 
Q's Predictions --

Liberals -- 105
Conservatives -- 131
NDP - 20
BQ -- 51
Ind -- 1

Total Seats Up for Grabs --308
Needed for a Majority -- 155

Saskatchewan currently has 14 ridings -- 13 Conservatives and 1 Liberal

In 2006 -- 12 Conservatives, 1 Liberal, and 1 NDP (Go Qu'Apelle!)
 
Q

Thanks for the reminder. I mistakenly forgot a seat in Sk and also had the Tories with an additional.
 
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