Saturday, January 21, 2006

 

Election Prediction sites are crap....

.... reason number 43.

Who is running this site - David Martin? Frank Stronach?

The Liberals are not going to win anything more than Official Opposition on Monday, unless every pollster in the country has been wrong for the past two weeks. So in a word - impossible.

Comments:
IF that prediction comes true, the site owners are clairvoyant :)
 
Seriously though =-- can you answer my question as to how popular vote equates to seats not based on popular vote?

I need the help of a political 'scientist' (snicker -- scientist)

Q--
 
Well smart ass it is completely possible to win more seats than another party even if that party has more votes.

I'm not optimistic, but I can see it happening. Since the Liberal support is concentrated in cities for the most part and there are a few places where the Conservatives may get a lot of votes and not get any seats, or get so many votes they'll win seats by huge margins and thus those popular votes will be wasted.

The NDP got more votes overall last time, but the Bloc won more seats because their votes were concentrated and efficient.
 
very scary:
www.harperstiestousa.org

very funny:
http://arkady.indymedia.org/media/video/StandUpnSING-lo.mov
 
Scary as in scary how some liberals will twist almost anything in an attempt to frighten voters. Martin's "smoke & mirrors" campaign isn't working this time.

Funny... as in funny how some liberal wasted so much time creating a childish movie slagging Harper but not offering any alternative since the current liberal parties are either corrupt or communist.

Back on topic, that election predictor is bizarre!!
 
Hishighness

You are correct, however, that is not going to happen this time. In fact, the only party that will win seats in every region and possible province is the Conservatives. That isn't a partisan shot but rather a fact.

I am not looking forward to a Harper government given my dislike of many of their policies - stated or otherwise - however they are going to win the most seats and votes. Therefore, he will deserve to be called Prime Minister.
 
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
 
Well.. I wrote these folks to ask them about this forecast.. and they (to their credit) wrote back and told me thay had revised their "final" seat count. They now give the Conservatives a plurality of seats.. but only a plurality of 2: 109 to 107 I think it was.

I still think thats low-balling the Conservatives.. but I guess we'll find out.
 
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