Saturday, April 16, 2005


It is not a matter of "IF", but rather "WHEN."

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is starting to have a prefered ring to it for many Canadians. According to multiple polls released today, if an federal election were called now, a Conservative victory would be the outcome.

An IPSOS / CTV / Globe poll shows the Conservatives in previously unattainable territory. In fact, the party would be threatening to pull-off a majority government.

A closer investigation of the numbers reveals two things: One, the new surge is a result of angry voters parking their contempt for the Liberals with the Conservatives and not the NDP, as previously reported. Second, Canadians are prepared to give Harper a shot.

A statistic of note. Alberta, remains a consistent stronghold for the Conservatives, who have a commanding lead in voter support. The poll found the Conservatives are actually up 11 points, sitting at a whopping 65 per cent support. Bye-bye Anne.

Even more staggering is that their nearest competitor is the NDP. What? The NDP are on the Alberta radar. Admitedly the party sits no less than 51 points behind at 14 per cent, but hey beggers can't be choosers. Third place in Alberta right now would be a tie between the Green Party, and the Liberals both at nine per cent. So the Liberals have gone from endangered species to extinct.

There are, however, a few points to note in the IPSOS poll. One, when asked if Canadians want an election? Only 11% say “Right Now”, 14% After Gomery wraps up testimony in May… Majority (53%) say after Gomery reports in October. For the Conservatives, this isn't good news. Stephen Harper has consistently said that Canadians will determine when the next election will be held and it appears they have no appetite for a spring vote.

Second, Canadians see Harper as leader to clean up corruption, but Martin as better on the economy. This is no throw away point. The majority of polls have consistently shown that the results of the Gomery Inquiry outcome will be only ONE reason for the electoral choice. In fact, in a 35 day campaign the corruption issue will play for 2 or 3 days and then the focus will shift to policy. A party's position on the economy and social will matter. Voters will be reminded that the Conservatives last handled the economy like a bull in a china shop. Two words - Brian Mulroney.

Prime Minister Harper has a nice ring. It will be nice to have a leader who doesn't think it's his devine right to lead.
As for people thinking Martin is stronger on the economy that's just residual memory of Martin's day as the world's best number two. Too bad he is unable to be number one.
Just imagine the filth that will be uncovered once the conservatives are in power. It should cement the Liberals as the most corrupt party in the history of Canada.
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